NuzTube INDIA
New Delhi/Islamabad:
India’s decision to suspend the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty has raised serious concerns in Pakistan, with the Indus River System Authority (IRSA) warning of a significant water shortage due to reduced inflows from the Chenab River. The situation is expected to worsen during Pakistan’s Kharif season, a critical period for agriculture.
Treaty Suspension and Immediate Consequences
On April 24, 2025, India formally suspended the Indus Waters Treaty, citing security concerns following the deadly terror attack in Pahalgam, Jammu and Kashmir, on April 22, which killed 26 people. As a result, India halted its data-sharing and project notifications to Pakistan, claiming its right to fully utilize the waters of the western rivers (Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab). This move has triggered a series of reactions in Pakistan, with serious implications for its agricultural economy.
Pakistan’s Agricultural Crisis
Pakistan’s IRSA has expressed grave concern over the 21% water deficit in the early Kharif season (May to June), attributed to a drastic reduction in the Chenab River’s inflows. The reduced water supply, blamed on India’s restricted releases from dams such as Baglihar and Salal, threatens to disrupt the irrigation of crucial crops like rice, cotton, and maize, which are essential for Pakistan’s food security.
The IRSA advisory committee confirmed that if the water levels in Chenab continue to drop, Pakistan could face even more severe shortages in the late Kharif season (June to September), with an expected deficit of 7%.
“Due to the reduced inflows at Marala headworks, the early Kharif season is likely to see a 21% water shortage, potentially worsening if the situation continues,” the IRSA press release stated.
The Kharif Season and Water Dependence
The Kharif season, which runs from June to October, is critical for the cultivation of rice, maize, millet, and cotton. These crops depend heavily on the monsoon rains and irrigation, and any disruption in water supply can have severe repercussions for Pakistan’s agricultural output.
The Treaty’s Broader Impact and Diplomatic Tensions
The Indus Waters Treaty, which allocates 80% of the Indus River System’s water to Pakistan and 20% to India, has long been a cornerstone of Indo-Pakistani relations. However, India’s recent suspension of the treaty could set a dangerous precedent, with implications for regional stability.
Pakistan has vowed to challenge India’s decision internationally, arguing that it violates the spirit of the treaty and the bilateral agreements in place. Pakistan also accuses India of using the water issue as a geopolitical tool, in response to tensions over cross-border terrorism.
The Pahalgam terror attack, which saw terrorists target tourists in Baisaran Valley, killing 25 Indian nationals and one Nepalese citizen, has fueled the ongoing diplomatic conflict between the two nations.
Looking Ahead
As tensions between India and Pakistan continue to rise, the future of the Indus Waters Treaty remains uncertain. The water shortage in Pakistan is just one of many challenges that lie ahead for both countries, with far-reaching implications for agriculture, food security, and diplomatic relations.
