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Early Monsoon Arrival in Kerala Signals Optimism for Bumper Kharif Crop and Agricultural Growth
New Delhi / Thiruvananthapuram: In a development that has energized India’s farming sector, the southwest monsoon made its onset over Kerala on Saturday, eight days ahead of the usual June 1 arrival, the earliest since 2009, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD). The monsoon continued to advance swiftly on Sunday into key agrarian regions, including Karnataka, Goa, Maharashtra, and northeastern states like Mizoram, Manipur, and Nagaland.
This early arrival has raised hopes of a robust Kharif crop season, critical to the country’s food production and rural economy. The southwest monsoon contributes nearly 70% of India’s annual rainfall, and nearly 51% of net sown area is rain-dependent, making its timely arrival crucial.
The IMD attributed the early onset to favorable atmospheric and oceanic conditions, and in its latest bulletin, confirmed that conditions remain favorable for further advancement into more parts of Maharashtra, southern India, and the northeastern states over the next few days.
Why This Early Monsoon Matters
Farmers, agricultural experts, and policymakers are viewing this development with optimism. With sowing activities expected to begin earlier than usual, key kharif crops like rice, maize, cotton, soybeans, and oilseeds are likely to see increased acreage and better yields. Horticultural crops such as onions and tomatoes are also expected to benefit from timely rainfall.
“This early onset is extremely positive,” said Professor Sudhir Panwar, noted agricultural expert and former member of the Uttar Pradesh Planning Commission. “It will significantly benefit rain-fed areas and help boost productivity, especially when input costs are high. It also brings down dependence on expensive irrigation.”
IMD’s Seven-Day Rainfall Forecast
According to IMD’s forecast, heavy to very heavy rainfall is likely to persist across the western coast in the next seven days. States including Kerala, Karnataka, Goa, and coastal Maharashtra are expected to witness continuous downpours.
Specifically:
- Extremely heavy rainfall is forecast in Kerala on May 25 and 26
- Ghat areas of Karnataka will be affected between May 25 to 27
- Ghat areas of Tamil Nadu will see heavy rain on May 25 and 26
Meanwhile, Rajasthan, which has been reeling under a severe heat wave, may experience relief starting May 28, as temperatures are expected to drop with the monsoon’s progress.
Expansion into Central and Southern India
Over the next three days, the IMD expects the monsoon to expand into:
- More parts of the central Arabian Sea
- Remaining parts of Tamil Nadu
- More parts of Andhra Pradesh, including Bengaluru and Mumbai
- Some parts of West-Central and North Bay of Bengal
- Additional parts of the Northeast
The advance of the monsoon is seen as crucial for both agricultural planning and power consumption, particularly with regard to irrigation electricity usage, which tends to decline with sufficient rainfall.
Agricultural and Economic Implications
According to Sanjeev Asthana, president of the Solvent Extractors Association of India (SEA), “A timely and adequate monsoon will provide a much-needed boost to India’s agricultural economy.” He emphasized that a good monsoon would help recharge reservoirs, improve soil moisture levels, and enhance overall farm output.
Encouraged by the forecast of an above-normal monsoon, the Union Government has set a record foodgrain production target of 354.64 million tonnes for the 2025–26 crop year. This figure is 3.8% higher than last year’s target of 341.55 million tonnes.
IMD’s Long-Term Monsoon Forecast
In April, the IMD projected that India will likely receive above-normal rainfall during the June-September monsoon season in 2025. The rainfall is expected to be around 105% of the Long Period Average (LPA), with a model error of ±5%. The LPA for 1971–2020 stands at 87 cm.
If these projections hold, India could witness significantly better water availability for both kharif and rabi crops, leading to improved food security and reduced inflationary pressures on food commodities.
Conclusion
The early onset of the monsoon in 2025 is a promising sign for India’s agrarian economy. With favorable rainfall distribution expected and strong government production targets in place, the farming sector could experience a major uplift in the months ahead. Policymakers and farmers alike are watching closely, hoping this monsoon marks the beginning of a record-breaking agricultural year.
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